Do Luxury Watches Hold Their Value? Depreciation, Explained Honestly

Some luxury watches hold their value remarkably well; most do not. The honest picture is this: the average luxury watch loses roughly 20-40% of its retail price the moment it leaves the boutique, but a small group of sought-after references from a handful of brands hold — or even exceed — retail on the secondary market. Brand matters, but the specific model matters more.

The brands that lead value retention

Morgan Stanley, using data from WatchCharts, tracks brand "value retention" each quarter. As of early 2026, the standouts still holding positive retention were Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet — with Patek commanding a premium over its retail prices, as reported in the watch trade press. These are the exceptions, though, not the rule for the wider market.

Why most watches depreciate

A retail price includes the brand's margin, distribution, and marketing. The secondary market strips those away and resets the watch to pure demand, which is why the initial 20-40% drop is normal for most models. After that first reset, well-chosen references tend to stabilize — and the most sought-after ones climb.

The model matters more than the brand

Within a single brand, retention varies wildly. A Rolex Submariner holds value beautifully; a Rolex Cellini does not. An AP Royal Oak appreciates; the Code 11.59 has depreciated. Even the retail-vs-secondary gap tells the story — as our Speedmaster vs. Daytona comparison shows, one trades near retail while the other doubles it. Buying the right reference is the whole game.

Should you buy for value?

Buy a watch because you love it first — treat value retention as a bonus, not a guarantee. That said, if holding value matters to you, favor iconic steel sports references in good, original condition with a full set. Buying pre-owned helps here too, since the first owner has already absorbed the steepest part of the depreciation — a point we cover in is a pre-owned luxury watch worth it.

The honest answer

Watches are not guaranteed investments, and anyone who promises otherwise is selling something. But a well-chosen reference, bought at a fair price, holds its value better than almost any other luxury purchase. Browse our collection or get in touch and we'll point you toward the references that tend to hold.